In 1956 M. King Hubbert, then with Shell Oil Company, predicted a peak in domestic
US oil production in early 1970's.
He was roundly criticized by industry spokesmen, but obviously his prediction
came true.
Today the event in 1971 is called Hubbert's Peak in recognition of his prediction.
Professor Kenneth Deffeyes has updated the work of Hubbert to consider world oil
production
and in 2001 published his prediction of a peak in world oil production in 2008.
www.princeton.edu/hubbert/the-peak.html
Since that prediction there has been a mountain of published condemnaton and
learned articles refuting the work;
just as there was with H. King Hubbert's earlier prediction.
Recently the US Energy Information Agency says the peak occured in 2005. www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11d.xls
The Oil & Gas Journal places the peak in 2006. Notice that both dates moved
"back" not "forward" in time.
Dr. Ken Deffeys is no longer a maligned fear-monger, he has become a prophet or
at least a visionary.
One should expect scarcity to begin to manifest itself in the next few
years.
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